半年後、カナダドルとＵＳドル、こんな見方している人もいますよ。
ＵＳドルとカナダドルがイーブンになればいいのに、私は期待したいです。みなさん、どう思いますか？
Canada’s Loonie Headed Back to Par With Greenback, Gartman Says
Email | Print | A A A
By Chris Fournier
Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s currency will return to par with its U.S. counterpart in as little as six months as commodity prices rebound, pessimism peaks and the nation’s political turmoil abates, according to Dennis Gartman.
“I can feel myself getting ready to be quite bullish on the Canadian dollar,” said Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Gartman Letter, who correctly predicted the currency’s most recent run to parity in 2007. “I have the sense that this might be a move back towards par and beyond.”
The Canadian dollar reached equal value to the U.S. dollar in September 2007 for the first time in three decades as prices soared for commodities such as crude oil, copper and aluminum, which account for about half the country’s export revenue. It plummeted 18 percent last year, the most ever, as a global recession curbed demand for the same commodities. The currency is down 1.6 percent this year.
The Canadian dollar fell to C$1.2211 at 7:30 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 81.43 U.S. cents.
Gartman, 58, predicted as early as 2002 the Canadian dollar would reach parity against the U.S. dollar. In January of that year, the currency traded below 62 U.S. cents.
“People laughed at me all the way until it finally reached par,” he said in an interview. “I’m starting to buy the Canadian dollar and if we can push the U.S. dollar under C$1.22, I’ll buy more.”
Several hundred institutional clients including the world’s largest banks, energy dealers, grain traders and hedge funds and mutual funds subscribe to Gartman’s newsletter, which also has hundreds of individual subscribers, he said. Gartman, who is based in Suffolk, Virginia, declined to give specific subscriber names.
Forecasts
Subscriptions cost $400 a month for individuals, and $500 a month for single-office institutions. Multiple-office clients pay “a good deal more,” Gartman said.
Gartman’s call on the Canadian dollar is at odds with the forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. On average, they see the currency weakening to C$1.25 by the end of June before rising to C$1.20 by year-end. None expect the loonie, so called because the one-dollar coin sports the national bird’s image, to reach parity this year.
The decline in commodity markets “has probably run its course,” Gartman said. The Bank of Canada’s Commodity Price Index has plummeted by half since reaching a peak of 318.30 in July. Crude, which at 21 percent of the index is its largest component, touched $38.60 a barrel last week, and has lost 55 percent in a year.
TSX Premium
A “turnaround” in the Baltic Freight Index, the “overt bearishness” of media reporting on markets and economies -- typical of the psychology surrounding market lows -- and the premium of Canada’s primary stock market over the Dow Jones Industrial Average, are among other factors influencing Gartman’s bullishness on Canada’s currency, he said.
The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index closed up 1.7 percent on Feb. 6 to 9008.02, while the Dow finished the week at 8280.59.
A January challenge over the budget by a bloc of opposition parties could have defeated Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s minority Conservative Party. Instead, Harper survived, unveiling about C$40 billion ($32.3 billion) in stimulus measures to stoke the economy.
“The political situation in Canada is getting much better,” Gartman said. “Harper is slowly but surely gaining control of the situation.”
The loonie gained 2.8 percent versus the U.S. dollar after reaching a four-year low on Oct. 28 at C$1.3017. Since then, the U.S. currency rose twice more to about C$1.30 before falling back, forming what traders call a “triple top,” a technical pattern that indicates a currency may depreciate.
‘Huge Resistance’
“There’s huge resistance to the U.S. dollar moving upward through C$1.30,” said Gartman, who graduated from the University of Akron in Ohio in 1972, before attending graduate school at North Carolina State University. “It looks like it has a formidable nature.”
Gartman was chief financial futures analyst for A.G. Becker & Company in Chicago and an independent member of the Chicago Board of Trade before moving to Virginia to head the futures brokerage business of Virginia National Bank, according to his Web site. He has produced his daily letter full-time since 1987.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at
cfournier3@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: February 9, 2009 08:44 EST
注意事項：当サイトのコンテンツをご利用いただく全ての方は、利用規約に同意したものとみなします。
